Western Conference Playoff Predictions: Spurs vs. Grizzlies

It all comes down to the youth.

This is possibly one of the most blue-collar series of this season’s NBA Playoffs as both lack the star power of other teams heading into the postseason.

1. San Anonio Spurs vs. 8. Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis didn’t exactly start the season out on the right foot.  It was marred by lengthy losing streaks matched by minimal winning streaks that never extended further than four games.  In fact, their longest winning steak of the season was only five games right before the All-Star break.  However, they haven’t lost three straight since December and were able to rack up enough wins to hold that eighth and final spot in the West.

The Spurs have been just as confusing.  This formerly defensively minded, full-court team was actually set to turn into an offensive machine.  With a Frenchman and Argentinean both leading the way, a transformation was due.  We never saw it happening this quickly nor with the same result as San Antonio essentially coasted to the No. 1 seed in the West.  Kudos to Greg Popavich.

Key Matchups:

When the Griz’s lead scorer, Rudy Gay, went down for the season with an injured shoulder back in February, we all thought it was over for Memphis.  However, they didn’t need to look any further than Zach Randolph for an option to fill in for scoring.  In fact, Memphis has gotten better since losing gay.  In the 54 games in which he played, they outscored opponents by two points per 100 possessions.  In the 28 games without Gay including the last two games that they didn’t need to win, they outscored opponents by 3.6 points per possession.  They haven’t fallen in any other category without highest paid player either.

The veteran Randolph will be key in keeping the Griz’s head above water.  The Spurs love to score and it will be up to him to lead the offense that already doesn’t score a ton with only 99 points a game (12^th in the league).  Z Bo has only been to the playoffs three times in his entire career and only amassed a dismal six wins without a trip to the second round yet.  It may be a lot to ask for this 29-year-old veteran who was essentially thrust into his first leading role ever in his career.

Tim Duncan has been playing less minutes than ever before in his career and his numbers have declined too.  With such a green team going into the playoffs, it’s really going to come down to Manu Ginobili to spark the offense in San Antonio.  The guy really flourishes when asked to step up and he works well in this new offense that has developed there.  However, he was injured in the Spurs’ last game of the season against the Suns last night.  He hyperextended his right elbow when Phoenix’s Grant Hill fell on it.  X-rays were negative for a more serious injury but it has yet to be determined if he will be missing any games.

If the injury turns out to be something worse, it will come down to Tony Parker utilizing some of the younger players in San Antonio.  George Hill, DeJuan Blair, Gary Neal and Matt Bonner will all have to step up.  Richard Jefferson found his way this season in his second year as a spur and he will have to step up well.  However, none of them perform on the same level as Ginobili does in the post season.

X Factors:

For the Spurs, it comes down to the young guys.  Hill, Blair, Neal and Bonner have proven that they can compete all season but the playoffs are a different story.  Memphis’s Lionel Hollins will have at least four games to adjust his defense appropriately.  Additionally, Tony Allen made a name for himself as a defender on the Boston Celtics and is the only player on Memphis with a ring.  He will shut down one of the players listen above and it will be up to the rest to step up and adjust around him.

The same applies to the Griz who have a ton of younger guys who have never seen the playoffs.  Overall, Memphis has never won a playoff series but if the greener players step up around the vets, that could change.  Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, Darrell Arthur and O.J. Mayo will get their first taste of the playoffs and how it works.  Sadly, they are doing this against a team that has been there and done that with rings to show for it.  Veterans such as Shane Battier and even Leon Powe need prepare these guys for a rough series.

Predictions:

San Antonio will win in five games.  Memphis will shake its post season losing streak but will end this series with a 1-16 playoff record as a franchise.  Even though they did beat the Spurs three times this season, they just aren’t ready for the playoffs.  They have plenty of good veterans but they don’t know how to lead a team.  San Antonio will roll and other than one loss in Memphis, this series will be theirs.  Expect some good games but the Griz just got their head stuck in the wrong honey pot.

San Antonio Spurs keep Winning

The Red Rocket will haunt Erik Spoelstra's dreams

Somebody should have told the Miami Heat that the San Antonio Spurs signed Charlie Sheen earlier this week. The signing was long over due, though, as Greg Popovich has been taking winning plays out of Sheen’s playbook for much of the season. Friday night Los Spurs channeled as much Sheen as they could as they squashed El Heat 125-95.

The drubbing began early on. In the first quarter San Antonio pounced on Miami on route to a score of 36-12 by quarter’s end. That point explosion was led by Matt Bonner who drained four three-pointers, all of which were uncontested as the Miami players rotated lethargically. If they even rotated at all on defense. Manu Ginobili found the mark from deep three times in the first as well. This game was over after the first twelve minutes had been played.

Miami, and especially LeBron James, tried to make a game of it in the second quarter as the Heat outscored the Spurs 38-26 in the frame. James paced his squad during the run scoring 15 of his 26 points in the second but the rally fell short and the Heat trailed by twelve points at the half.

An unexpected surprise in this game was the appearance of Tony Parker who had originally been expected to miss two to four weeks with a strained calf. Miami would have liked to see him in street clothes. Parker sliced the Heat defense, what little defense there was, anyway, and frequently got to the cup. He scored eight of his 15 points on layups alone.

Clearly, the Heat took exception to the embarrassment they were suffering and it spilled over onto the court. In the third quarter, as Parker was on a breakaway going in for a layup, Erick Dampier pushed Parker in the back sending him flying out-of-bounds. Dampier was quickly hit with a flagrant two foul and ejected from the game. Parker his both of his free throws after the foul.

Trillionaire Steve Novak entered the game shortly after the fourth quarter began and this game was officially over as both sides eventually cleared their benches.

San Antonio set a franchise record with 17 made three-pointers during the game, eight of which came in the first quarter. They were shooting 60.7 percent from behind the arc for the game. The Spurs shot 56.1 percent overall for the game. They knew what the outcome of the game was going to be and Tim Duncan let them know it on the bench in the first quarter as his told his teammates that it was “game over.”

Read his lips

Miami faces a situation now that is quite telling of who they are as a team. They have only won two games against the other top teams in the league. Clearly, the pieces surrounding the Trio are not working out, especially the bench. The Heat have the lowest scoring bench in the NBA.

Of late, it has been quite apparent that the Big 3 cannot do it all since they are essentially two and a half men. They need scoring help from elsewhere on the team but just are not getting it. Since each member of the triumvirate tends to operate better with the ball in their hands the offense can quagmire (giggity) frequently. An added concern, one that was brought up time and again when these players joined the Heat, was that this team has no real interior center to clog the lane. Dampier is certainly not the answer since his game is predicated on trying to get in the way and little else. Miami does not have a shot blocking threat to keep opposing guards from penetrating their defense.

No team is perfect, however. With their loss to the Spurs, the Heat have fallen to third in the Eastern Conference behind the Chicago Bulls. A playoff run is inevitable for Miami. There is simply no way that they can have a Mets sized collapse and miss the post season. The East bottom feeders are just too bad for that to happen.

However, the loss to the Spurs should send up warning signs. This team is in danger unless they can find a way to improve their play against the best teams in the league because each of them will appear in the playoffs. On Friday night, though, there was nothing that Miami could do. San Antonio had too much tiger blood coursing through their veins.

Spurs Continue Dominant Play

RJ's resurgence has contributed to their early success

Here at the Beef we never really discuss the San Antonio Spurs except when we want to make light of them. However, not even we can can joke about their play of late as they have been simply dominant. Last night the Spurs steamrolled the Cleveland Cavaliers 116-92 to notch their tenth consecutive victory giving them the NBA’s best record at 11-1, which is also the best start in franchise history.

San Antonio’s start is a complete 180 from last year’s when they were 6-6 at this point. Last season we joked about the Spurs’ age slowing them down. This season they addressed that issue bringing the average player age on their roster down from 28.11 years old to 27.25 years old. Essentially, they eliminated the fat but kept their veteran core intact.

Keeping that core who knows how to play in Greg Popovich’s system has paid dividends so far. The Spurs rank second in the league in both points per game, averaging 107.8, and offensive rating which stands at 112.2. Their defense is not too shabby either as the Spurs hold their opponents to 98.2 points per game which ranks eleventh in the league while their team defensive rating is sixth best at 102.2.

San Antonio keeps winning despite Tim Duncan‘s offensive struggles. It is not insulting to say that Duncan is on the downhill slope of his career which peaked from 2001-2003. Since that time his numbers have remained as mechanical and consistent until the past several years. This season Duncan is averaging 13.7 points, which places him fourth on the team in scoring, and 9.6 rebounds, his lowest averages in his career. He is also connecting on field goals at a clip of .482 which is a career low.Where Duncan’s age appears to be effecting his game, others have stepped in to fill the void.

Last season, Richard Jefferson found himself to be the butt of jokes and the shame of the River Walk. Many questioned the Spurs’ sanity when they resigned him after releasing him this summer. They released him so that they could restructure his contract. That restructuring seems to also have effected his game and efficiency substantially. Jefferson recorded his worst season last year since he was a rookie, averaging only 12.3 points. This season he has seen a marked improvement. He is averaging 16.3 points on 54 percent shooting, the highest mark in his career. Yes, the season is only twelve games old for the Spurs but if Jefferson continues this pace it can mean only good things for the Spurs.

Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, despite his marital collapse, continue to pace San Antonio, as they have done for several years now. Ginobili leads the team in scoring at 20 points per game with Parker not far behind at 19.1. Parker is also averaging 7.7 dimes per contest.

Role players have also contributed greatly to the Spurs’ early success. Matt Bonner, the team’s most reliable three-point shooter, leads the entire league in three-point field goal percentage with a clip of .667, though he has only appeared in six games thus far, connecting on 14 of his 22 attempts this season. Gary Neal and Antonio McDyess have also contributed nicely off the bench while George Hill is averaging 8.4 points to lead all reserves this season.

Tiago Splitter, the most recent acquisition by San Antonio, has appeared in eight games this season with the game against Cleveland being his biggest. He scored 18 points on 7-of-10 shooting while also collecting five rebounds and recording two blocks.

Not everything is flowers and butterflies for the Spurs, however. DeJuan Blair‘s offensive production need improvement. The second year player out of Pitt is averaging just 6.4 points while shooting a dreadful 39 percent from the floor. Where is game does not need improvement is on the defensive end. Blair is grabbing 4.8 defensive boards per game out his season average of 7.8 total rebounds and has a defensive rating of 98 which is tied with Duncan for the best on the team.

The Spurs did not have the most difficult schedule for the first twelve games of the season with their one loss coming against the New Orleans Hornets, who have the second best record in the league at 10-1. They did, however, have to face the Thunder, Bulls, and Jazz in a three game stretch in which they handily defeated each. The coming week should be a good barometer of how the Spurs shape up in the league as a whole as they host the Orlando Magic on Monday and Dallas Mavericks on Friday with a trip to Minnesota in the middle.

Early this season, San Antonio has given the Western Conference more to think about other than the general Lakers praise that is rampant. They have the best record and sit atop the tough Southwest Division. The Spurs seem to be a dark horse championship pick every season. This season, however, calling them a dark horse candidate would only mean that any appreciation of their accomplishments so far has been ignored. Do not be surprised if San Antonio disrupts a certain team’s quest for a three-peat. The Spurs and Lakers square off for the first time on December 28.

Roster Depth…Who needs It?

Each of these players has more rings than LeBron James

When it comes to team depth, it seems like the average NBA fan is all too ready to dismiss the notion as pure folly. They seem to feel that it is entirely irrelevant. The most common example they bring up is that depth does not win championships. It seems to them that the combination of two to three strong players (I’ll use some examples that were put in front of me by someone else: Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen, Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal, Kobe and Pau Gasol) and a role player or two and you can pretty much guarantee a championship. Signed, sealed, delivered, it is yours. Frequently, those who hold this belief puff up their chests and issue a challenge to prove them wrong. Well, lucky for them. I am always good for a well natured challenge and giving them that example is exactly what this article intends to do. First, however, the issue of roster depth must be addressed appropriately.

The Los Angeles Lakers have won their second title in a row and head into the 2010-11 season as favorites once more. In each of those championship runs, the Lakers rotation was sliced to six players essentially. Bryant, Pau Gasol, Ron Artest (2009-10), Trevor Ariza (2008-09), Derek Fisher, Lamar Odom, and Andrew Bynum were the key cogs that turned the gears of this team. In each of the championship runs the Lakers were paced by Bryant and Gasol with Odom in 2009 and Artest in 2010 logging the third most minutes. Only in 2009, when Ariza played slightly fewer minutes than Odom, was there not a dramatic fall off in the number of minutes played between the “role player” and the rest of the team. Interestingly enough, Bynum was essentially the sixth man, in terms of minutes played, on each of those playoff teams. (Can we call him a bust yet? I will.) There you have it. This is the argument that everyone makes when it comes to roster depth. You do not need it. Look at what the Lakers have done recently and you can see their point. Ah, but not so fast.

This off season, Los Angeles (not the Clippers) was sitting high and Kobe Bryant was simply sitting to rest his knee, heal his finger, ice down his body, and take pain medication. Yeah, he is beat up. Despite the fact that the team had just won its second straight championship with virtually the same roster, Artest and Ariza being the only difference, the Lakers did not seem content to try it again without making changes. So what did they do? They went out and added depth to their roster. “GASP! No, say it is not so! How can we, the Lakers faithful, who have exclaimed from on high that roster depth is a pointless pursuit come to terms with the fact that our team feels differently. Woe is us for our eyes and ears have been deceived. Oh, Zen Master, what did we do wrong to deserve such a cruel fate?”

Steve Blake, Matt Barnes, and Theo Ratliff were brought in and are all blatant roster upgrades over the likes of Jordan Farmar and Didier Ilunga-Mbenga. (No offense to Mbenga, I love that guy. But Farmar should take complete offense.) The Lakers kept Shannon Brown around, signing him to a two-year deal his offseason but will likely see his playing time dip with all the new additions. So why, if a small rotation wins championships, did the Lakers reload their bench. Simply put, their bench was terrible over the past two seasons. Awful, truly awful. Phil Jackson knew it, why do you think he played his starters so much? Sure they are good, but they need to rest at times. The bench was a liability and hurt the Lakers as a whole.

Donkey and Shrek

Look at last year’s finals, it is the perfect example of why roster depth is important. The Boston Celtics were much deeper than the Lakers were and they used it to their advantage. (“But the Lakers won so any point you are trying to make is invalidated.”) The series would not have lasted seven games if it was not for Boston’s bench. Game four is a perfect example of why bench play is important to a team. Boston’s bench doubled the point production of the Lakers’ reserves as they were led by Glen Davis and Nate Robinson. Davis contributed nine points in the fourth quarter which helped to stem a Lakers surge and secure victory for the Celtics thereby tying the series at two games apiece. Yes, the Celtics lost the series eventually, mostly because Kendrick Perkins went down in game six with a torn PCL and MCL, but their bench played a key role in the series unlike the Lakers bench. Depth improves a team.

So where is my example of a team that won a championship with an extended rotation? “Ha, you haven’t found one, have you? I knew it. What a blowhard. This guy over here doesn’t know anything about basketball. I don’t even know why I take time to read this stupid blog anyway. Pssh, I’m gonna go read the latest Bill Simmons and John Hollinger articles. At least those guys know what they are taking about. Get ready for another Lakers’ three-peat. Lakers rule!” Well, now that most of you have probably stopped reading, I can get to the team that defies this notion that depth wins nothing.

They did not need to worry when their starters sat

As a Mavericks fan, I write what I am about to write only because it proves my point. If it were not for that I could never bring myself to do such a thing as this or even admit to having knowledge of it. During the playoffs in 2007, the San Antonio Spurs used not only their star power, but also their overwhelming depth to beat every team they faced on route to a sweep of the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA finals. Did they have a better starting five than the Cavaliers? Yes. With LeBron James worship reaching more demigod proportions everyday it would seem hard that a team could beat the chosen man-child. That being said, a better starting five will always have the advantage in the playoffs. Nonetheless, depth still helps.

Unlike the previous two Lakers championships, the Spurs in 2007 do not have a significant drop off in minutes or games played. Instead they have a steady, calculated decline with a complement of ten players receiving quite a bit of playing time. Jacque Vaughn played in all 20 of the Spurs playoff games totaling 208 minutes for an average of 10.4 minutes a game. Only Matt Bonner and Beno Udrih saw less playing time than Vaughn. Contrast that with last year’s Lakers, Jordan Farmar played in all 23 of their postseason games logging 301 minutes for an average of 13.1 minutes per game. Luke Walton, Sasha Vujacic, Josh Powell, Adam Morrison, and Mbenga all saw less playing time than Farmar. Both of these players were their team’s respective back up point guards. The Spurs depth simply out classed each of their opponents, having only seen a six game series once, against Utah, on their way to the championship. Ten of the Spurs’ 12 players played in at least 18 games with eight playing in all 20. Eight of the Lakers’ players from last season appeared in all 23 of their playoff games; however, five of them only appeared in 16 or fewer of them.

Yes, rotations get shorter in the post season. It only makes since for a coach to play his best players more so that the team performs at a higher level when the stakes are greatest. This is a no brainer. Nor should Josh Powell be expected to play near as many minutes as Kobe Bryant. This is not what I am trying to say. What I am stating is that the Spurs team in 2007 breaks the argument that roster depth does not mean a thing in the playoffs. They proved that it does. Yes, Tony Parker and Tim Duncan logged the most minutes on the team but they were not forced to play 40 or more minutes a game because they had help coming off the bench who could maintain the same level of pressure on an opponent without any catastrophic decline in the team’s overall performance on the court.

Is the standard championship model based on the superstar, his sidekick, and a role player or two. For now it appears to be that way. This level of thinking is amateurish, though. The Spurs proved that in 2007. No, my example does not squash the two star player championship combination but it proves that an extended rotation is more valuable than it is generally believed. Ignoring the benefits of roster depth is to fail to grasp the entire point of a roster at all. Basketball is a team game no matter how much the media focuses on individual players. The Lakers are not about Kobe Bryant, they are about the triangle offense in which the team plays. There is absolutely every reason for a general manager to sign players who can come off the bench and replace starters while helping improve the quality of the team. This is why the Lakers signed Blake, Barnes, and Ratliff. (I think the Ratliff signing was in part because they expect Bynum to continue to underachieve and remain perennially injured.) It is why teams like Dallas signed Tyson Chandler. They do not want to see a performance dropoff when their starters leave the floor. A good second unit is a valuable thing to have, especially during the regular season when they can help you get wins to secure seeding in the playoffs.